Heading into 2010 the national unemployment rate is at 10.2% (California’s rate even higher) and still climbing, foreclosure activity is finally decreasing, a large volume of ARM resets are looming, and banks have yet to release an unknown volume of foreclosed homes onto the market. But are things really this bleak…I suggest not.
There are positives looking forward, the first time homebuyer tax credit was just extended and improved to include previous homeowners, the temporary loan limits from 2009 have been extended into 2010, and the government is still sticking with their mortgage backed security purchase program that is keeping interest rates at incredible levels. But there are definitely some unknown factors that will affect our housing market in 2010.
The number one anticipated factor to affect our market this coming year is another anticipated round of foreclosures sure to flood our local markets and kill any price stability we may have gained through the end of this year. But, although it has been speculated that banks have an insurmountable stockpile of foreclosures on their books, I don’t believe that we’ll see the same affects on the housing market that foreclosures had in 2008.
Market conditions for one should keep banks from flooding the markets with their inventory of REO properties. While local market conditions may seem plausible for banks to begin releasing their stockpiled foreclosure inventory, they may not be willing to release them until broader housing markets show better signs of recovery.
Other reasons may be more logistical in nature… I think it’s more than obvious that banks (that are left) have a lot on their plates at the moment. You may recall that some nationally (some internationally) held banks have recently consolidated with failing banks over the past year (Bank of America acquiring Countrywide, Chase acquiring Washington Mutual, Wells Fargo acquiring Wachovia) and may not be able to liquidate much of their foreclosure holdings until they have implemented systems to handle the workload.
Also considering added strict government oversight due to previous bank failures, banks must now show signs of recovery or face lack of government support. When a bank brings a foreclosed home to market they must simultaneously write down the loss from the asset (the home) which will then show up on their balance sheet and thus affect their gross worth as a company.
And many banks have finally realized the benefits of short sales and have been implementing new policies in order to expedite these sales. Think about it, if the bank never has to foreclose and market the property as an REO then they don’t have write down the asset on their books until the short sale has been finalized. This will help them avoid being cut off from possible federal lifelines.
Recalling the first wave of foreclosures that rocked our housing market over 2008, the majority of those loans were mostly subprime mortgages from banks that no longer exist (Lehman Brothers, First Franklin, Indy Mac Bank, etc.). Current foreclosure activity is being linked to more stable loan programs from lenders who can offer alternatives for the homeowners to avoid foreclosure, such as loan modifications, short sales, or even lease back programs aimed at keeping families in their homes. All of this will lead to better housing stability.
Taking into further consideration with the recent recovery in the stock market (if you can call it recovery), we are now seeing levels near 10,000 points in the DOW, which means people are beginning to regain losses on their investments. So, unlike homeowners who suffered mortgage delinquency earlier this year when the stock market tanked out at 6,500 points back in March, today’s homeowners have the ability to dip into their stock investments and help pay for homeownership expenses.
Foreclosure activity has also been steadily decreasing for a few months now (according to RealtyTrac.com) from March of 2009 which was the peak of foreclosure activity for CA. This means there will be less defaults moving forward and hopefully the real estate market will gain some real ground moving into 2010.
